Life cycle implication of the potential commercialization of stover-based E85 in China

Beibei Liu, Feng Wang, Wu Yunze, Bi Jun, Bu Maoliang and Juan Gao

Energy Policy, 2012, vol. 43, issue C, 371-380

Abstract: This article discusses an integrated framework built to compute the cost of stover-based E85, as well as its life cycle energy efficiency and CO2 emission, with consideration of uncertainties of the policy-related factors, in China. Results show that co-product treatment greatly influenced the performance of E85 route. The calculated values of energy efficiency in co-product burning for electricity scenario (the base scenario) and that in co-product for selling scenario (the alternative scenario) are 4.41 and 3.61, respectively. CO2 emission of the stover-based route is 99.7% more than that of the gasoline route in the base scenario and 55.3% less than that of the gasoline in the alternative scenario. The costs of E85 in these two scenarios are 9.78 and 7.76yuan/L, respectively. Based on the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the article suggests the following: (1) stover-based E85 is currently not competitive in terms of cost; (2) on the current stage, to make E85 competitive, policymakers should be concerned about stimulating processing innovation, providing subsidies on ethanol, feedstock and co-product, as well as raising gasoline price, rather than increasing carbon tax rate/promoting Cleaner Development Mechanism (CDM) projects or influencing consumers’ Willingness to Pay (WTP) for E85.

Keywords: Stover-based ethanol; CO2 emission; Uncertainty analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:43:y:2012:i:c:p:371-380

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.12.062

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