 Peak Oil profiles through the lens of a general equilibrium assessmentHenri Waisman, Julie Rozenberg (), Olivier Sassi and Jean-Charles Hourcade Energy Policy, 2012, vol. 48, issue C, 744-753 Abstract: This paper disentangles the interactions between oil production profiles, the dynamics of oil prices and growth trends. We do so through a general equilibrium model in which Peak Oil endogenously emerges from the interplay between the geological, technical, macroeconomic and geopolitical determinants of supply and demand under non-perfect expectations. We analyze the macroeconomic effects of oil production profiles and demonstrate that Peak Oil dates that differ only slightly may lead to very different time profiles of oil prices, exportation flows and economic activity. We investigate Middle-East's trade-off between different pricing trajectories in function of two alternative objectives (maximisation of oil revenues or households’ welfare) and assess its impact on OECD growth trajectories. A sensitivity analysis highlights the respective roles of the amount of resources, inertia on the deployment of non conventional oil and short-term oil price dynamics on Peak Oil dates and long-term oil prices. It also examines the effects of these assumptions on OECD growth and Middle-East strategic tradeoffs. Keywords: Peak Oil; Oil revenues; General equilibrium (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:48:y:2012:i:c:p:744-753 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.005 Access Statistics for this article Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier |
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