Projecting EU demand for natural gas to 2030: A meta-analysis

William J. Smith

Energy Policy, 2013, vol. 58, issue C, 163-176

Abstract: Gas demand projections for the EU27 from a variety of sources are compared. Projected demand varies widely between sources, even when similar rates of economic growth and policy strength are assumed. The divergence is shown to result from differing assumptions concerning future energy intensity, on the one hand, and the future contribution of nuclear power and renewables (RES) to electricity generation on the other. The variation with time of some of these projections is also examined. It is found that the gas demand projected by both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the European Commission (EC) for 2020 and for 2030 has tended to decrease with each successive projection. This is understandable, since the penetration of RES-E has continued to exceed expectations. However, in an economically depressed, post-Fukushima Europe, estimates of future growth in both RES and nuclear generation may need significant revision. The Energy Efficiency Directive, as agreed by the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament in April 2012 (Council of the European Union, 2012), will also impact significantly on future gas demand, even though the measures incorporated are weaker than the original proposal. The analysis presented here shows that a “nuclear decline” due to the Fukushima disaster is seen to moderate, rather than reverse, projected demand decay. A significant shortfall in projected RES capacity, if it were to occur, constitutes a potential source of additional gas demand.

Keywords: Natural gas; Projection; Demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513001511
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:58:y:2013:i:c:p:163-176

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.02.045

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France

More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().