A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

Ajay Gambhir, Niels Schulz, Tamaryn Napp, Danlu Tong, Luis Munuera, Mark Faist and Keywan Riahi

Energy Policy, 2013, vol. 59, issue C, 614-632

Abstract: This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a “hypothetical counterfactual baseline” (HCB) scenario and low carbon (“abatement”) scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important.

Keywords: China; CO2 emissions; Low-carbon technology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:59:y:2013:i:c:p:614-632

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.04.022

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