A system dynamics approach for the photovoltaic energy market in Spain¤

Santiago Movilla, Luis J. Miguel and L. Felipe Blázquez

Energy Policy, 2013, vol. 60, issue C, 142-154

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to contribute to understanding the behaviour of the photovoltaic (PV) sector in Spain and its expectations under possible scenarios. Currently, PV solar energy is not a profitable sector by itself. Therefore, the Spanish government, like the governments of other countries, has stimulated investment with subsidies. The spectacular increase of PV facilities exceeded all forecasts and the government decided to curb the trend. The present hypothesis is that continuing with this support to PV energy, the technological advances and the economy generated from the production of panels would be able to make the sector profitable in the future without the necessity of subventions. Based on this hypothesis, a computer simulation model was built using the system dynamics methodology. To test its utility, the model was challenged to fit the historical data and to explore several futures over the next few years. The model allows an understanding of the sector's behaviour under the latest policies of the Spanish government, thus helping to design future public policies. The simulation results are different depending on the adopted policy and the scenario. Therefore, these factors will determine the success or failure of the investments in this type of energy.

Keywords: Photovoltaic energy; System dynamics; Computer simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:60:y:2013:i:c:p:142-154

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.04.072

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