Correlation between Chinese and international energy prices based on a HP filter and time difference analysis

Yongxiu He, Bing Wang, Jianhui Wang, Wei Xiong and Tian Xia

Energy Policy, 2013, vol. 62, issue C, 898-909

Abstract: To establish a reasonable system and mechanism for Chinese energy prices, we use the Granger causality test, Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter and time difference analysis to research the pricing relationship between Chinese and international energy prices. We find that Chinese and international crude oil prices changed synchronously while Chinese refined oil prices follow the changes of international oil prices with the time difference being about 1 month to 2 months. Further, Australian coal prices Granger causes Chinese coal prices, and there is a high correlation between them. The U.S. electricity price is influenced by the WTI crude oil price, the U.S. gasoline price and the HenryHub gas price. Due to the unreasonable price-setting mechanism and regulation from the central government, China′s terminal market prices for both electricity and natural gas do not reflect the real supply–demand situation. This paper provides quantitative results on the correlation between Chinese and international energy prices to better predict the impact of international energy price fluctuations on China′s domestic energy supply and guide the design of more efficient energy pricing policies. Moreover, it provides references for developing countries to improve their energy market systems and trading, and to coordinate domestic and international energy markets.

Keywords: Energy prices; HP filter; Time difference analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513008367
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:898-909

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.136

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France

More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().