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Exploring the production of natural gas through the lenses of the ACEGES model

Vlasios Voudouris, Ken'ichi Matsumoto, John Sedgwick, Robert Rigby, Dimitrios Stasinopoulos and Michael Jefferson

Energy Policy, 2014, vol. 64, issue C, 124-133

Abstract: Due to the increasing importance of natural gas for modern economic activity, and gas's non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future natural gas production while considering uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop future scenarios for natural gas supply using the ACEGES computational laboratory. Conditionally on the currently estimated ultimate recoverable resources, the ‘Collective View’ and ‘Golden Age’ Scenarios suggest that the supply of natural gas is likely to meet the increasing demand for natural gas until at least 2035. The ‘Golden Age’ Scenario suggests significant ‘jumps’ of natural gas production – important for testing the resilience of long-term strategies.

Keywords: Probabilistic forecasts; Natural gas depletion; ACEGES (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.08.053

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