Modeling California policy impacts on greenhouse gas emissions

Jeffery B. Greenblatt

Energy Policy, 2015, vol. 78, issue C, 158-172

Abstract: This paper examines policy and technology scenarios in California, emphasizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 and 2030. Using CALGAPS, a new, validated model simulating GHG and criteria pollutant emissions in California from 2010 to 2050, four scenarios were developed: Committed Policies (S1), Uncommitted Policies (S2), Potential Policy and Technology Futures (S3), and Counterfactual (S0), which omits all GHG policies. Forty-nine individual policies were represented. For S1–S3, GHG emissions fall below the AB 32 policy 2020 target [427 million metric tons CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e)yr−1], indicating that committed policies may be sufficient to meet mandated reductions. In 2030, emissions span 211–428MtCO2eyr−1, suggesting that policy choices made today can strongly affect outcomes over the next two decades. Long-term (2050) emissions were all well above the target set by Executive Order S-3-05 (85MtCO2eyr−1); additional policies or technology development (beyond the study scope) are likely needed to achieve this objective. Cumulative emissions suggest a different outcome, however: due to early emissions reductions, S3 achieves lower cumulative emissions in 2050 than a pathway that linearly reduces emissions between 2020 and 2050 policy targets. Sensitivity analysis provided quantification of individual policy GHG emissions reduction benefits.

Keywords: Greenhouse gas; Global warming; California climate policy; AB 32; Mid-term emission target; Cumulative greenhouse gas emission (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:78:y:2015:i:c:p:158-172

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.024

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