 All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to EuropePhilipp Richter () and Franziska Holz Energy Policy, 2015, vol. 80, issue C, 177-189 Abstract: The 2014 Russian–Ukrainian crisis reignited European concerns about natural gas supply security recalling the experiences of 2006 and 2009. However, the European supply situation, regulation and infrastructure have changed, with better diversified import sources, EU member states being better connected and a common regulation on the security of supply has been introduced. Nevertheless, European dependency on natural gas remained high. This paper investigates different Russian natural gas export disruptions scenarios and analyses short- and long-term reactions in Europe. We use the Global Gas Model (GGM), a large-scale mixed complementarity representation of the natural gas sector with a high level of technical granularity with respect to storage and transportation infrastructure. While we find that most of the EU member states are not severely affected by Russian disruptions, some East European countries are very vulnerable. Prioritizing the removal of infrastructure bottlenecks is critical for securing a sufficient natural gas supply to all EU member states. Keywords: Natural gas trade; Russia; Europe; Security of supply; Infrastructure investment; Equilibrium modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:177-189 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.024 Access Statistics for this article Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier |
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