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Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution

Cristiana Manescu () and Galo Nuño Barrau ()

Energy Policy, 2015, vol. 86, issue C, 855-866

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of the so-called “shale oil revolution” on oil prices and economic growth. We employ a general equilibrium model of the world oil market in which Saudi Arabia is the dominant firm, with the rest of the producers as a competitive fringe. Our results suggest that most of the expected increase in US oil supply due to the shale oil revolution has already been incorporated into prices and that it will produce an additional increase of 0.2% in the GDP of oil importers in the period 2010–2018. We also employ the model to analyze the collapse in oil prices in the second half of 2014 and conclude that it was mainly due to positive unanticipated supply shocks.

Keywords: Saudi Arabia; General equilibrium; Shale oil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q41 Q47 E17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:86:y:2015:i:c:p:855-866

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.05.015

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