Smallpox and Native American mortality: The 1780s epidemic in the Hudson Bay region

Ann Carlos and Frank Lewis

Explorations in Economic History, 2012, vol. 49, issue 3, 277-290

Abstract: The smallpox epidemic of 1781–82 in the Hudson Bay region is said to have devastated the native population, causing mortality of at least 50%. We reassess this claim using a four-pronged approach. First, we total smallpox deaths reported by two fur trading posts that were in the midst of the epidemic. Second, we review case fatality rates in other smallpox outbreaks, and discuss the likely incidence of the disease among Native Americans. Third, we analyse trade during the period of the epidemic. Fourth, we estimate the native population prior to the epidemic based on the carrying capacity of the region. All four approaches lead to a similar conclusion. Mortality from smallpox was likely under 20%, which is much less than previously asserted.

Keywords: Smallpox; Native Americans; Fur trade; Population; Health (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I13 J11 N30 N31 O15 Z10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:exehis:v:49:y:2012:i:3:p:277-290

DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2012.04.003

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