Stock returns and the Spanish flu, 1918–1920

Marco Del Angel, Caroline Fohlin and Marc D. Weidenmier

Explorations in Economic History, 2023, vol. 90, issue C

Abstract: We study the impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu on U.S. stock prices. Using a new weekly hand collected sample of 131 firms that traded on the NYSE, we examine the impact of the four waves of the flu on stock returns using panel regressions. We find that the second and fourth wave of the pandemic significantly lowered stock returns by 65.5 and 21.6 percent relative to the sample mean return, respectively. The large, but temporary impact of the virus on stock returns can probably be attributed to the fact that, unlike Covid-19, the flu hit the working age population particularly hard.

Keywords: Stock returns; Influenza (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B26 G12 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:exehis:v:90:y:2023:i:c:s0014498323000372

DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101543

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