The impact of aging on the adjustment of China's economic growth pattern: A study based on the endogenous growth model

Zhaorui Wang

International Review of Financial Analysis, 2025, vol. 104, issue PB

Abstract: Since entering the new development stage, China still faces high requirements for economic growth rate. However, the continuous increase in aging rate in recent years has had a significant negative impact on economic growth. The economic growth pattern urgently needs to be adjusted. Most existing viewpoints suggest that China's economic growth pattern needs to shift from capital and labor driven to total factor productivity (TFP) driven. However, most existing literature has only conducted qualitative analysis. Few studies have quantitatively analyzed this viewpoint through theoretical models. This paper conducts an endogenous growth model containing aging factors and rigorously argues that with the deepening of aging, the economic growth pattern relying on TFP is difficult to achieve China's economic growth targets in the new development stage. China needs to build the economic growth pattern of new and traditional force balance to achieve the expected goals. The conclusion of this paper not only supplements and revises existing viewpoints, but also makes up for the lack of empirical study in relevant research fields.

Keywords: Aging; Economic growth rate; Economic growth pattern; Economic policy; Endogenous growth model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finana:v:104:y:2025:i:pb:s1057521925004405

DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104353

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