 Quotas in flux, security at risk: China's energy quota trading and the DML-estimated energy security degradationJingcheng Li, Menggang Li and Junjie Li International Review of Financial Analysis, 2025, vol. 105, issue C Abstract: Using a double machine learning model, this study examines the impact of China's Energy Quota Trading (EQT) policy on urban energy security across 274 cities from 2012 to 2021. Results indicate that the EQT policy significantly undermines urban energy security by distorting the industrial structure and increasing climate policy uncertainty. The negative effects are more pronounced in resource-dependent cities, traditional industrial bases, and regions experiencing fiscal stress or rapid industrialization. Spatial analysis reveals that while EQT promotes partial convergence of urban energy security in lower-level cities through technological diffusion, it delays overall convergence due to regional competition and resource misallocation. The study recommends developing a unified national EQT framework, improving regulatory enforcement, and increasing energy infrastructure investments to better balance efficiency and equity. Keywords: Energy quota trading; Energy security; Double machine learning; Climate policy uncertainty; China (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finana:v:105:y:2025:i:c:s1057521925005381 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104451 Access Statistics for this article International Review of Financial Analysis is currently edited by B.M. Lucey More articles in International Review of Financial Analysis from Elsevier |
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