Economics at your fingertips  

Drivers of technical trend-following rules' profitability in world stock markets

Numan Ülkü and Eugeniu Prodan

International Review of Financial Analysis, 2013, vol. 30, issue C, 214-229

Abstract: Testing short-horizon technical trend-following rules, including the first comprehensive evidence on the relatively-neglected MACD rule, on a large panel of world stock market indexes, we investigate the determinants of technical trading rule profitability. The main driver of trend-following rules' profitability is return persistence, which, in turn, is negatively related to market development. Return volatility adds to technical rule profitability. A new result is that the presence of an index futures market lowers profits to short-horizon trend-following rules after controlling for other indicators of market development. This may reflect the role of transaction costs as a friction retarding incorporation of information.

Keywords: Technical trend-following rules; Drivers of technical trading rule profitability; Transaction costs; Index futures; Market efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G14 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2013.08.005

Access Statistics for this article

International Review of Financial Analysis is currently edited by B.M. Lucey

More articles in International Review of Financial Analysis from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().

Page updated 2021-09-09
Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:214-229