Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models

Davide Avino and Ogonna Nneji

International Review of Financial Analysis, 2014, vol. 34, issue C, 262-274

Abstract: This paper investigates the forecasting performance for CDS spreads of both linear and non-linear models by analysing the iTraxx Europe index during the financial crisis period which began in mid-2007. The statistical and economic significance of the models' forecasts are evaluated by employing various metrics and trading strategies, respectively. Although these models provide good in-sample performances, we find that the non-linear Markov switching models underperform linear models out-of-sample. In general, our results show some evidence of predictability of iTraxx index spreads. Linear models, in particular, generate positive Sharpe ratios for some of the strategies implemented, thus shedding some doubts on the efficiency of the European CDS index market.

Keywords: Credit default swap spreads; iTraxx; Forecasting; Markov switching; Market efficiency; Technical trading rules (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C24 G01 G17 G20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Working Paper: Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finana:v:34:y:2014:i:c:p:262-274

DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2014.04.001

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