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Stock return forecasting: Some new evidence

Dinh Hoang Bach Phan, Susan Sharma and Paresh Narayan ()

International Review of Financial Analysis, 2015, vol. 40, issue C, 38-51

Abstract: This paper makes three contributions to the literature on forecasting stock returns. First, unlike the extant literature on oil price and stock returns, we focus on out-of-sample forecasting of returns. We show that the ability of the oil price to forecast stock returns depends not only on the data frequency used but also on the estimator. Second, out-of-sample forecasting of returns is sector-dependent, suggesting that oil price is relatively more important for some sectors than others. Third, we examine the determinants of out-of-sample predictability for each sector using industry characteristics and find strong evidence that return predictability has links to certain industry characteristics, such as book-to-market ratio, dividend yield, size, price earnings ratio, and trading volume.

Keywords: Stock returns; Oil price; Predictability; Forecasting; Out-of-sample (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E37 G17 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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