 The contagion effect in European sovereign debt markets: A regime-switching vine copula approachInternational Review of Financial Analysis, 2018, vol. 58, issue C, 153-165 Abstract: Multidimensional dependence in financial markets has motivated the conception of copulas as a tool to analyze nonlinear connections. However, the dynamics generating the dependence structure is still considered unchanged, whether during turmoil or stable periods, and the curse of dimensionality prevents researchers from detecting the regime shifting that may connect financial markets. In this paper, we develop a tractable Markov regime-switching C-vine and D-vine under the symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula, capable of detecting lower and upper tail dependencies separately. Application is conducted on twelve government bonds, the U.S. and eleven European bonds belonging to the Eurozone. Results show that the regime-switching copula models explain the dynamics of data dependence better than the single-regime copula, which indicates the presence of a contagion effect. Furthermore, for Eurozone bond markets, the contagion remains in its high state since the global financial crisis of 2008 and European sovereign debt crisis of 2009, with a transmission path from core to stressed countries. Keywords: Financial contagion; Markov chain; Regime-switching; Vine copula (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finana:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:153-165 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2017.09.013 Access Statistics for this article International Review of Financial Analysis is currently edited by B.M. Lucey More articles in International Review of Financial Analysis from Elsevier |
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