 Which popular predictor is more useful to forecast international stock markets during the coronavirus pandemic: VIX vs EPU?Jiqian Wang, Xinjie Lu, Feng He and Feng Ma International Review of Financial Analysis, 2020, vol. 72, issue C Abstract: This study mainly investigates which predictors (VIX or EPU index) are useful to forecast future volatility for 19 equity indices based on HAR framework during coronavirus pandemic. Out-of-sample analysis shows that the HAR-RV-VIX model exhibits superior forecasting performance for 12 stock markets, while EPU index just can improve forecast accuracy for 5 equity indices, implying that VIX index is more useful for most stock markets' future volatility during coronavirus crisis. The results are robust in recursive window method, alternative realized measures and sub-sample analysis; moreover, VIX index still contains the strongest predictive ability by considering kitchen sink model and mean combination forecast. Furthermore, we further discuss the predictive effect of VIX and EPU index before the coronavirus crisis. Our article provides policy makers, researchers and investors with new insights into exploiting the predictive ability of VIX and EPU index for international stock markets during coronavirus pandemic. Keywords: COVID-19; International stock market; VIX; EPU; HAR framework (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finana:v:72:y:2020:i:c:s1057521920302404 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101596 Access Statistics for this article International Review of Financial Analysis is currently edited by B.M. Lucey More articles in International Review of Financial Analysis from Elsevier |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.