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Where is the distribution tail threshold? A tale on tail and copulas in financial risk measurement

Mariano González-Sánchez and Juan M. Nave Pineda
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Mariano Gonzalez Sanchez

International Review of Financial Analysis, 2023, vol. 86, issue C

Abstract: Estimating the market risk is conditioned by the fat tail of the distribution of returns. But the tail index depends on the threshold of this distribution fat tail. We propose a methodology based on the decomposition of the series into positive outliers, Gaussian central part and negative outliers and uses the latter to estimate this cutoff point. Additionally, from this decomposition, we estimate extreme dependence correlation matrix which is used in the measurement of portfolio risk. For a sample consisting of six assets (Bitcoin, Gold, Brent, Standard&Poor-500, Nasdaq and Real Estate index), we find that our methodology presents better results, in terms of normality and volatility of the tail index, than the Kolmogorov–Smirnov distance, and its unnecessary capital consumption is lower. Also, in the measurement of the risk of a portfolio, the results of our proposal improve those of a t-Student copula and allow us to estimate the extreme dependence and the corresponding indexes avoiding the implicit restrictions of the elliptic and Archimedean copulas.

Keywords: Tail index; Fat tail; Extreme dependence; Confidence level (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 G10 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finana:v:86:y:2023:i:c:s1057521923000285

DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102512

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