Unravelling the credit market shocks and investment dynamics: A theoretical and empirical perspective

Darja Zabavnik and Miroslav Verbič

International Review of Financial Analysis, 2024, vol. 94, issue C

Abstract: This paper investigates the underlying credit market shocks that historically affected business investment in the Slovenian economy. In contrast to the existing literature, we explore more profound structural shocks beneath the credit demand and supply shocks. For the purpose of structural identification, we propose a theoretical model of the credit market that reveals the credit market imperfections on the side of credit supply as well as liquidity demand. The theoretical structure justifies our set of identifying restrictions, further evaluated with the structural Bayesian VAR model. Our results confirm the relevance of loan supply shocks for the business investment activity, suggesting the existence of credit market imperfections. Furthermore, business investment is strongly conditioned by liquidity demand shocks, which explain a significant part of the variation in investment activity. Even though loan supply shocks constrained the investment activity in Slovenia during the financial crisis, the results of our analysis suggest that banks predominantly reacted to the increasing financial risk as opposed to the changes in their profit functions. Based on the results, we may conclude that in the common monetary area, fiscal policy should implement country-specific measures to effectively address the business sector's expectations regarding the economy's medium- and long-term development.

Keywords: Credit market; Business investment; Imperfect capital markets; Bayesian VAR approach; Sign restrictions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E44 E51 G10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finana:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s1057521924002151

DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103283

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