Missing the cut? How threshold effects distort U.S. small business lending trends

Mark Heil

Finance Research Letters, 2019, vol. 28, issue C, 82-86

Abstract: This paper estimates a downward bias over time in official U.S. lending data series widely used to proxy credit flows to small businesses. The bias occurs because the upper loan origination size threshold used to proxy this lending is fixed and denominated in nominal currency, so its real value erodes over time due to inflation. Some advocates invoke the apparent declining small business lending trend to push governments to implement support programs for these businesses. The paper offers preliminary fully inflation-adjusted multipliers applicable to nominal lending data so that analysts may observe more accurate trends and better inform policy decisions.

Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:28:y:2019:i:c:p:82-86

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2018.04.005

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