Momentum trading in the NFL gambling market

John R. Nofsinger and Corey A. Shank

Finance Research Letters, 2023, vol. 55, issue PB

Abstract: We explore the impact of momentum trading in the NFL betting market at the aggregate weekly level. Bettors prefer to bet on momentum rather than mean reversion in the totals market. The effect is strongest when they bet that the total points scored by both teams will be under the betting line set by bookmakers, especially when the under bet won 60% or more of the games in the previous 1, 2, and 3 weeks. Momentum trading by betting the score will be over the betting line loses money, while trading in the under makes a profit.

Keywords: Market efficiency; Momentum; Sports betting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 G4 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pb:s1544612323003781

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104006

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