A central bankers’ sentiment index of global financial cycle

Zhen Yu, Wei Liu and Fuyu Yang

Finance Research Letters, 2023, vol. 57, issue C

Abstract: We propose a novel Central Bankers’ Sentiment Index (CBSI) to measure the global financial cycle (GFC) using text analysis on 6,514 central bankers’ speeches. We find that the CBSI outperforms the conventional measures in capturing the GFC by tracing historical events and identifying turning points. Our empirical evidence further demonstrates the comparative advantages of CBSI in reflecting the capacities of central banks to aggregate financial system information and intervene in financial market operations. Our findings provide new insights into a more accurate measurement of the GFC and also contribute to a better understanding of the impact of central bank speeches.

Keywords: Global financial cycle; Sentiment; Central bankers’ speeches (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 G10 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:57:y:2023:i:c:s1544612323005330

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104161

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