Impacts of Donald Trump's tweets on volatilities in the European stock markets

Yusaku Nishimura and Bianxia Sun

Finance Research Letters, 2025, vol. 72, issue C

Abstract: This study investigates whether political news from Donald J. Trump affects European stock markets. We use realized volatility and the HAR-RV model to examine the effect of Trump's tweets on the stock market volatility in Germany, France, and the UK during his last presidential term. Results indicate that Trump's tweets positively impact volatilities in European stock markets, with these impacts increasing as attention to his tweets rises. The effect on the UK stock market is relatively weaker. The empirical results indicate that Trump's tweets influence global stock markets beyond the US.

Keywords: Stock market volatility; Trump tweets; High-frequency data; Social media (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:72:y:2025:i:c:s1544612324015204

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106491

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