Asymmetric credit risk pathways in china’s green bond market: A Conjunctural analysis using modified PFM and fsQCA

Jiapei Li, Chuangbin Chen and Zhenrui Wu

Finance Research Letters, 2025, vol. 83, issue C

Abstract: This research pioneers a configurational analysis of credit risk in China’s green bond market through integrated application of a newly designed modified-Private Firm Model and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. Leveraging issuer data from 2015–2022, we address critical gaps in assessing non-listed entities and differentiating risk pathways between labelled/non-labelled bonds. Labelled bonds exhibit higher average default risk despite certification benefits, with 93.07 % AAA-rated vs 97.79 % for non-labelled counterparts. Non-labelled issuers face elevated risks from subsidy dependence and overinvestment-driven configurations. fsQCA identifies nine distinct risk pathways for non-labelled bonds versus five for labelled, with macroeconomic resilience strongly tied to certification status.

Keywords: Green bond market; Asymmetric credit risk pathways; Carbon neutrality and carbon peak; Modified PFM model; Non-labelled issuers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325008852
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:83:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325008852

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107626

Access Statistics for this article

Finance Research Letters is currently edited by R. Gençay

More articles in Finance Research Letters from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().