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Can risk-rebalancing explain the negative correlation between stock return differential and currency? Or, does source status drive it?

Numan Ülkü, Sabutay Fatullayev and Daria Diachenko

Journal of Financial Markets, 2016, vol. 27, issue C, 28-54

Abstract: We show that Hau and Rey׳s (2006) empirical evidence is not sufficient to support their risk-rebalancing theory as an explanation for the negative correlation between the stock market return differential and currency. A simple model combining home-wealth rebalancing and extrapolative expectations on the foreign stock predicts this negative correlation only when the host market is a source of international capital. Panel regressions indicate that the source status of the economy (i.e., whether it is a net receiver or source of international capital) is a main predictor of the stock return differential–currency correlation.

Keywords: Exchange rates; Stock market return differentials; Equity portfolio flows; Portfolio rebalancing. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G12 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2015.07.001

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