Betting against analyst target price

Chulwoo Han, Jangkoo Kang and Sun Yung Kim

Journal of Financial Markets, 2022, vol. 59, issue PB

Abstract: Using a robust measure that captures the market’s reaction to analysts’ target price releases, we show that the initial stock price reaction corresponds to target prices, but the price drifts in the opposite direction for a long period, resulting in negative cross-sectional predictability. In the U.S. market from 1999 to 2020, the derived long-short portfolio generates a significant one-month ahead return of 0.75% and 10.00% over a year and possesses favorable features: its profit is higher among large and liquid stocks, originates from long positions, and lasts long. Empirical evidence suggests that the return reversal is caused by both discount rate shifts and mispricing correction following target price releases.

Keywords: Net number of optimistic analysts (NOA); Target price; Discount rate; Mispricing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finmar:v:59:y:2022:i:pb:s1386418121000562

DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2021.100677

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