Dealing with financial instability under a DSGE modeling approach with banking intermediation: A predictability analysis versus TVP-VARs
Stelios Bekiros,
Roberta Cardani,
Alessia Paccagnini and
Stefania Villa
Journal of Financial Stability, 2016, vol. 26, issue C, 216-227
Abstract:
In the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) literature there has been an increasing awareness on the role that the banking sector can play in macroeconomic activity. We present a DSGE model with financial intermediation as in Gertler and Karadi (2011). The estimation of shocks and of the structural parameters shows that time-variation should be crucial in any attempted empirical analysis. Since DSGE modelling usually fails to take into account inherent nonlinearities of the economy, we propose a novel time-varying parameter (TVP) state-space estimation method for VAR processes both for homoskedastic and heteroskedastic error structures. We conduct an exhaustive empirical exercise to compare the out-of-sample predictive performance of the estimated DSGE model with that of standard ARs, VARs, Bayesian VARs and TVP-VARs. We find that the TVP-VAR provides the best forecasting performance for the series of GDP and net worth of financial intermediaries for all steps-ahead, while the DSGE model outperforms the other specifications in forecasting inflation and the federal funds rate at shorter horizons.
Keywords: Financial frictions; DSGE; Time-varying coefficients; Extended Kalman filter; Banking sector (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C13 C32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308916300596
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Related works:
Working Paper: Dealing with Financial Instability under a DSGE modeling approach with Banking Intermediation: a predictability analysis versus TVP-VARs (2016) 
Working Paper: Dealing with Financial Instability under a DSGE modeling approach with Banking Intermediation: a predictability analysis versus TVP-VARs (2016) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finsta:v:26:y:2016:i:c:p:216-227
DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2016.07.006
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Financial Stability is currently edited by I. Hasan, W. C. Hunter and G. G. Kaufman
More articles in Journal of Financial Stability from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().