Sovereign debt spreads in EMU: The time-varying role of fundamentals and market distrust
Jordi Paniagua (),
Juan Sapena and
Journal of Financial Stability, 2017, vol. 33, issue C, 187-206
This paper provides further analysis on the determinants of sovereign debt spreads for peripheral Eurozone countries since the start of EMU, paying special attention to episodes that characterized the global financial crisis aftermath starting in 2007. More specifically, the purpose of our research is to disentangle the role of fundamental variables and market perception about variations on risk in order to explain the evolution of sovereign spreads in EMU during the recent crisis. Our results, in line with previous literature, show the importance of three groups of observable variables, namely, changes in risk-aversion of creditors, fiscal indebtedness and liquidity variables. In addition, our model includes unobserved components that are estimated through the Kalman filter as time-varying deviation from fixed-mean parameters of spread determinants. This shows the importance of expectations (market sentiments), amplifying (or reducing) the relative importance of the spread determinants over time through the time-varying behavior of the parameters around their steady-state estimates.
Keywords: Sovereign bond spreads; Contagion; Euro area; Kalman filter (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 E44 F36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:187-206
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Financial Stability is currently edited by I. Hasan, W. C. Hunter and G. G. Kaufman
More articles in Journal of Financial Stability from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Haili He ().