Intervention analysis of COVID-19 pandemic impact on timber price in selected markets

Petra Hlaváčková, Jan Banaś and Katarzyna Utnik-Banaś

Forest Policy and Economics, 2024, vol. 159, issue C

Abstract: Using intervention analysis and time series of roundwood prices from ten European and North American countries, we analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the movement of timber prices. The study material consists of forty-six quarterly time series prices of logs and pulp, both softwood and hardwood, covering the period 2005–2022. During the Covid-19 pandemic period (2020:Q1-2020:Q4), softwood log prices mostly underwent declines, with the changes being the largest in Slovakia (−35%), the Czech Republic (−24%) and Austria (−24%), slightly smaller in the United States (−19%), Poland (−17%), Slovenia (−12%) and Germany (−11%) while no significant price changes were recorded in Finland and Sweden. In Canada and the United States, sharp price declines occurred earlier (2020:Q1 and 2020:Q2, respectively), while in Europe, significant price declines occurred later and lasted longer. In the post-pandemic COVID-19 period, prices increased, but in most cases, the shift was not statistically significant compared to the pre-pandemic period. Softwood pulp prices were subject to much less change, with a significant increase only in Slovakia and Poland. In contrast, no significant changes were observed in the price of both log and pulpwood hardwood during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Intervention analysis; Transfer function; Structural break; ARIMA; Timber market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:forpol:v:159:y:2024:i:c:s1389934123002186

DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103123

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