Decision making under deep uncertainty for pandemic policy planning

Sophie Hadjisotiriou, Vincent Marchau, Warren Walker and Marcel Olde Rikkert

Health Policy, 2023, vol. 133, issue C

Abstract: Policymakers around the world were generally unprepared for the global COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the virus has led to millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. Theoretically, the number of cases and deaths did not have to happen (as demonstrated by the results in a few countries). In this pandemic, as in other great disasters, policymakers are confronted with what policy analysts call Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU). Deep uncertainty requires policies that are not based on 'predict and act' but on ‘prepare, monitor, and adapt’, enabling policy adaptations over time as events occur and knowledge is gained. We discuss the potential of a DMDU-approach for pandemic decisionmaking.

Keywords: COVID-19; Uncertainty; Policymaking; Reliable organizations; Systems analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:133:y:2023:i:c:s0168851023001161

DOI: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2023.104831

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