Projected costs of long-term care for older people in England: The impacts of housing quality improvements

Bo Hu, Nicola Brimblecombe, Javiera Cartagena-Farias and Wagner Silva-Ribeiro

Health Policy, 2025, vol. 152, issue C

Abstract: Good quality housing is vitally important to public health. However, its economic consequences for the long-term care sector and implications for health policy have not been thoroughly examined. This study investigates the impacts of housing improvements on future costs of long-term care in England. Using data from two national surveys, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Health Survey for England (HSE), we combined a Markov model with a macrosimulation model to make projections of long-term care costs under a series of housing intervention scenarios. We project that, without housing interventions, formal care costs will increase from £22.4 billion to £40.8 billion and unpaid/informal care costs will increase from £55.2 billion to £90.8 billion between 2022 and 2042. In a scenario where all housing problems are remedied, formal and unpaid care costs in 2042 are projected to be £2.8 billion and £7.1 billion lower than the no intervention scenario, respectively. There are substantial synergies between health and housing policies. Well-designed housing improvement programmes delay the progression of long-term care needs, resulting in lower long-term care costs. The cumulative savings of long-term care costs over time can pay back the investment needed for housing improvements.

Keywords: Long-term care policy; Long-term care costs; Functional limitations; Housing improvements; England (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:152:y:2025:i:c:s0168851025000028

DOI: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2025.105246

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