 Predicting box office with and without markets: Do internet users know anything?Information Economics and Policy, 2013, vol. 25, issue 2, 70-80 Abstract: This study investigates and compares predictions of opening weekend box office revenue from an online prediction game, the Derby, and an online prediction market, the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), using a sample of 141 films released in 2007. Overall, both mechanisms provide accurate predictions of box office outcomes but tend to over-predict small-earning films and under-predict large-earning films. This bias is present across a number of sub-samples disaggregated by film-specific variables. The bias is consistently greater in the Derby game, suggesting that the market mechanism is superior to the non-market mechanism. There is also evidence that larger budget films, sequels and films featuring stars are predicted more accurately in both settings, and that individual-level predictions improve as films spend more time at the box office and as players gain experience. Keywords: Motion pictures; Prediction mechanisms; Prediction markets; Information aggregation; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:iepoli:v:25:y:2013:i:2:p:70-80 DOI: 10.1016/j.infoecopol.2013.05.001 Access Statistics for this article Information Economics and Policy is currently edited by D. Waterman More articles in Information Economics and Policy from Elsevier |
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