A system dynamics approach for assessing the impact of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures

Béla Genge, István Kiss and Piroska Haller

International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, 2015, vol. 10, issue C, 3-17

Abstract: The massive proliferation of information and communications technologies (hardware and software) into the heart of modern critical infrastructures has given birth to a unique technological ecosystem. Despite the many advantages brought about by modern information and communications technologies, the shift from isolated environments to “systems-of-systems” integrated with massive information and communications infrastructures (e.g., the Internet) exposes critical infrastructures to significant cyber threats. Therefore, it is imperative to develop approaches for identifying and ranking assets in complex, large-scale and heterogeneous critical infrastructures. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures. The methodology is inspired by research in system dynamics and sensitivity analysis. The proposed behavioral analysis methodology computes the covariances of the observed variables before and after the execution of a specific intervention involving the control variables. Metrics are proposed for quantifying the significance of control variables and measuring the impact propagation of cyber attacks.

Keywords: Critical infrastructures; Cyber attacks; Impact assessment; System dynamics; Sensitivity analysis; Smart grid (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ijocip:v:10:y:2015:i:c:p:3-17

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcip.2015.04.001

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