The puzzling change in the international transmission of U.S. macroeconomic policy shocks
Ethan Ilzetzki and
Journal of International Economics, 2021, vol. 130, issue C
We demonstrate a dramatic change over time in the international transmission of US monetary policy shocks. International spillovers from US interest rate policy have had a different nature since the 1990s than they did in post-Bretton Woods period. Our analysis is based on a panel of 21 high income and emerging market economies. Prior to the 1990s, the US dollar appreciated, and ex-US industrial production declined, in response to increases in the US Federal Funds Rate, as predicted by textbook open economy models. The past decades have seen a shift, whereby increases in US interest rates depreciate the US dollar but stimulate the rest of the world economy. Results are robust to several identification methods. We sketch a simple theory of exchange rate determination in face of interest-elastic risk aversion that rationalizes these findings.
Keywords: International spillovers; Exchange rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Working Paper: The Puzzling Change in the International Transmission of U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Shocks (2021)
Chapter: The Puzzling Change in the International Transmission of US Macroeconomic Policy Shocks (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:inecon:v:130:y:2021:i:c:s0022199621000210
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