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Gains from trade liberalization with flexible extensive margin adjustment

Chang-Tai Hsieh, Nicholas Li, Ralph Ossa and Mu-Jeung Yang

Journal of International Economics, 2023, vol. 142, issue C

Abstract: We propose a sufficient statistic to measure the ex-post welfare gains from trade in CES models featuring any productivity distribution and any pattern of selection into production and exporting. This statistic is based on a single data moment, the change in the market share of continuing domestic producers, and a single structural parameter, the elasticity of substitution between products. We apply our statistic to measure Canada's gains from the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement using data on observed firm selection. We find that welfare gains can substantially deviate from welfare estimates implied by formulas that assume a constant extensive margin trade elasticity.

Keywords: Trade; Welfare; Firms; Selection; Extensive margin; Sufficient statistic; Liberalization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:inecon:v:142:y:2023:i:c:s0022199623000429

DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103756

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