Price dynamics in the Belarusian black market for foreign exchange

Hannes Huett, Matthias Krapf and Selver Uysal

Journal of International Economics, 2014, vol. 94, issue 1, 169-176

Abstract: Using unique data from an internet-based foreign-exchange trading platform, we show that the black market efficiently incorporated public information on the state of the Belarusian economy during the Balance of Payments crisis of 2011. Between May and October 2011, the government repeatedly devalued the Belarusian ruble and eventually abandoned its fixed exchange rate regime. Measures derived from black market transaction data have significant predictive power for these devaluations. The significance of these black market measures survives even when we include standard macroeconomic indicators in our forecasting model. In line with standard economic theory, activity in the black market has dried up subsequently.

Keywords: Black market; FX market; Technological progress; Price setting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 O17 O33 P22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199614000853
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:inecon:v:94:y:2014:i:1:p:169-176

DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.06.002

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of International Economics is currently edited by Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier and Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés

More articles in Journal of International Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().