 Value-added trade and business cycle synchronizationRomain Duval, Nan Li, Richa Saraf and Dulani Seneviratne Journal of International Economics, 2016, vol. 99, issue C, 251-262 Abstract: Ever since Frankel and Rose's (1998) seminal paper, the literature on trade and business cycle synchronization has relied on gross trade data, with weak results in recent papers that carefully address omitted variable bias. This paper re-examines this relationship using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2013. In a panel framework, we identify a significantly positive impact of bilateral (value-added) trade intensity on business cycle synchronization—controlling for global common shocks, country-pair heterogeneity and other covariates—that is absent when gross trade data are used. There is also some evidence that the impact of value-added trade on synchronization increases with the degree of (value-added) intra-industry trade. We provide a theoretical rationale for the role of value-added trade for synchronization using a simple international business cycle model that features cross-country input linkages in production. Keywords: Business cycle synchronization; Value added trade; Trade Integration (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:inecon:v:99:y:2016:i:c:p:251-262 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.11.001 Access Statistics for this article Journal of International Economics is currently edited by Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier and RodrÃguez-Clare, Andrés More articles in Journal of International Economics from Elsevier |
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