Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls

Kristin Forbes, Marcel Fratzscher, Thomas Kostka and Roland Straub

Journal of International Economics, 2016, vol. 99, issue C, 85-104

Abstract: We use changes in Brazil's tax on capital inflows from 2006 to 2013 to test for direct portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls on investor portfolios. We find that an increase in Brazil's tax on foreign investment in bonds causes fund managers to significantly decrease their portfolio allocations to Brazil in both bonds and equities. Fund managers simultaneously increase allocations to other countries that have substantial exposure to China and decrease allocations to countries viewed as more likely to adjust their capital controls. Much of the effect of capital controls on portfolio allocation appears to occur through signalling — i.e., changes in investor expectations about future policies — rather than the direct cost of the controls. This evidence of significant externalities from capital controls suggests that any assessment of controls should consider their effects on portfolio flows to other countries.

Keywords: Capital controls; Externalities; Spillovers; Signalling; Mutual funds; Brazil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F3 F4 F5 G0 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (118)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Bubble Thy Neighbor: Portfolio Effects and Externalities from Capital Controls (2013)
Journal Article: Bubble thy neighbor: portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls (2012)
Working Paper: Bubble Thy Neighbor: Portfolio Effects and Externalities from Capital Controls (2012)
Working Paper: Bubble thy neighbor: portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls (2012)
Working Paper: Bubble Thy Neighbor: Portfolio Effects and Externalities from Capital Controls (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:inecon:v:99:y:2016:i:c:p:85-104

DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.12.010

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