Optimal control under uncertainty: Application to the issue of CAT bonds

Nicolas Baradel

Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2024, vol. 117, issue C, 16-44

Abstract: We propose a general framework for studying optimal issue of CAT bonds in the presence of uncertainty on the parameters. In particular, the intensity of arrival of natural disasters is inhomogeneous and may depend on unknown parameters. Given a prior on the distribution of the unknown parameters, we explain how it should evolve according to the classical Bayes rule. Taking these progressive prior-adjustments into account, we characterize the optimal policy through a quasi-variational parabolic equation, which can be solved numerically. We provide examples of application in the context of hurricanes in Florida.

Keywords: Optimal control; Uncertainty; Bayesian filtering; Cat bonds; Hurricanes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 G22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668724000398
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:insuma:v:117:y:2024:i:c:p:16-44

DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2024.03.004

Access Statistics for this article

Insurance: Mathematics and Economics is currently edited by R. Kaas, Hansjoerg Albrecher, M. J. Goovaerts and E. S. W. Shiu

More articles in Insurance: Mathematics and Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().