Forecasting life expectancy: Evidence from a new survival function

Chi Heem Wong and Albert Tsui

Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2015, vol. 65, issue C, 208-226

Abstract: We propose a new survival function to forecast life expectancies at various ages. The proposed model comprises the youth-to-adulthood component and the old-to-oldest-old component. It is able to closely fit adult survivorship of the US men and women in the period from 1950 to 2010. We find evidence that the forecasting performance of life expectancies by the proposed model compares favorably with those obtained from the popular Lee–Carter model (1992) and the shifting logistic model proposed by Bongaarts (2005).

Keywords: Lee–Carter model; Life expectancy; Mortality; Survival probability; Time series analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668715300287
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Forecasting Life Expectancy: Evidence from a New Survival Function (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:insuma:v:65:y:2015:i:c:p:208-226

DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2015.08.006

Access Statistics for this article

Insurance: Mathematics and Economics is currently edited by R. Kaas, Hansjoerg Albrecher, M. J. Goovaerts and E. S. W. Shiu

More articles in Insurance: Mathematics and Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().