A hierarchical model for the joint mortality analysis of pension scheme data with missing covariates

Francesco Ungolo, Torsten Kleinow and Angus S. Macdonald

Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2020, vol. 91, issue C, 68-84

Abstract: A hierarchical model is developed for the joint mortality analysis of pension scheme datasets. The proposed model allows for a rigorous statistical treatment of missing data. While our approach works for any missing data pattern, we are particularly interested in a scenario where some covariates are observed for members of one pension scheme but not the other. Therefore, our approach allows for the joint modelling of datasets which contain different information about individual lives. The proposed model generalizes the specification of parametric models when accounting for covariates. We consider parameter uncertainty using Bayesian techniques. Model parametrization is analysed in order to obtain an efficient MCMC sampler, and address model selection. The inferential framework described here accommodates any missing-data pattern, and turns out to be useful to analyse statistical relationships among covariates. Finally, we assess the financial impact of using the covariates, and of the optimal use of the whole available sample when combining data from different mortality experiences.

Keywords: Mortality; Survival model; Longevity risk; Missing data; Mortality models with covariates; MCMC; Model selection; Bayesian inference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:insuma:v:91:y:2020:i:c:p:68-84

DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.01.003

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