Long-term real dynamic investment planning
Jens Perch Nielsen and
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2020, vol. 92, issue C, 90-103
When long-term savers plan for retirement they need to know their investment prospects in terms of real income (Merton, 2014). While inflation has traditionally been considered as a complication in financial analysis and financial practise, we obtain enhanced predictability and model fit if the real returns are targeted in conjunction with earnings-by-price minus inflation as predictor. For this latter case, we propose an investment strategy of updating the simple classical Merton proportion as we go along. This simple strategy is very close to the complicated theoretically optimal solution but has comparably much lower parameter uncertainty.
Keywords: Long-term Investment; Forecasting Returns; Nonmyopic Strategy; Optimal Investment; Strategy; Econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:insuma:v:92:y:2020:i:c:p:90-103
Access Statistics for this article
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics is currently edited by R. Kaas, Hansjoerg Albrecher, M. J. Goovaerts and E. S. W. Shiu
More articles in Insurance: Mathematics and Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Haili He ().