New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle

Veaceslav Grigoras and Irina Eusignia Stanciu

International Economics, 2016, vol. 147, issue C, 27-52

Abstract: Business cycle synchronisation (or the lack thereof) has fallen once again under the spotlight of policy and academic circles. In the spirit of Burns and Mitchell and the NBER, this paper dates turning points for most European countries and the US. Later on, synchronisation is addressed through a series of measures, studying the clustering of turning points, along with indicators of concordance and correlation. Last but not least, the main properties of cycles are analysed, in order to provide a more comprehensive view on business cycle similarities. We conclude that previous to the Great Recession the European business cycle has been constantly enforced by formal or informal cohesion between EU member states. However, post-crisis developments show signs of a great disconnect, both within Europe and between Europe and the US. Moreover, heterogeneity of business cycle measures hints at a possible overstating of business cycle synchronisation within the EU.

Keywords: Business cycle dating; Business cycles synchronisation; International business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:inteco:v:147:y:2016:i:c:p:27-52

DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2016.03.002

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