EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Is stock return predictability time-varying?

Neluka Devpura, Paresh Kumar Narayan and Susan Sharma

Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2018, vol. 52, issue C, 152-172

Abstract: Using historical data (January 1927 to December 2014), this paper shows that stock return predictability is time-varying based on several well-known predictors from the literature. However, only 7 of 14 predictors exhibit this time-varying predictability pattern. For the remaining predictors, either there is no predictability or predictability is not time-dependent. We also examine the determinants of time-varying predictability. We show that (a) both expected and unexpected shocks emanating from financial variables, and (b) phases of predictability (which capture market volatility) explain return predictability.

Keywords: Heteroskedasticity; Time-varying predictability; Predictive regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443117302652
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfin:v:52:y:2018:i:c:p:152-172

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money is currently edited by I. Mathur and C. J. Neely

More articles in Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

 
Page updated 2019-09-22
Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:52:y:2018:i:c:p:152-172