Changes in shares outstanding and country stock returns around the world

Huaigang Long, Mardy Chiah, Adam Zaremba and Zaghum Umar

Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2024, vol. 90, issue C

Abstract: Motivated by stock-level evidence of the issuance anomalies, we examine whether a similar effect drives the cross-section of country stock returns. To this end, we investigate six decades of data from 67 markets. The changes in aggregate shares outstanding negatively predict future country equity returns. The quintile of markets with the highest share increase underperforms their low-issuance counterparts by 0.85 % per month. The effect is distinctly robust and cannot be subsumed by known risk factors. The observed pattern complies with the mispricing interpretation, and high arbitrage constraints augment its magnitude. Finally, the issuance premium may be harvested with exchange-traded funds, paving the way for a viable country selection strategy.

Keywords: Shares outstanding; Equity issuance; International stock markets; Equity anomalies; Country equity returns; The cross-section of stock returns; Return predictability; Asset pricing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G12 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfin:v:90:y:2024:i:c:s1042443123001518

DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2023.101883

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