Tech titans and crypto giants: Mutual returns predictability and trading strategy implications

Elie Bouri, Amin Sokhanvar, Harald Kinateder and Serhan Çiftçioğlu

Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2025, vol. 99, issue C

Abstract: This study examines the directional return predictability between the technology sector of U.S. stock market and three major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin). Using daily data from August 7, 2015, to February 8, 2024, and the cross-quantilogram approach in both static and dynamic settings, the results reveal significant positive predictability in the stock market–cryptocurrency nexus. The technology sector, semiconductors subsector, and Nvidia Corporation exert predictive power over cryptocurrency returns and vice versa across several quantiles and lags. When controlling for the impact of other financial variables, namely, U.S. dollar and U.S. treasury markets, the return predictability holds, especially for the two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, which reflects their importance and tighter connections with the U.S. technology sector. A trading strategy based on the results of the cross-quantilograms outperforms a benchmark strategy (i.e., always long position in either stocks or cryptocurrency), which underlines the practical implications of our main findings, particularly in terms of the significant return interactions between U.S. technology/semiconductors stocks and large cryptocurrencies.

Keywords: Bitcoin; Ethereum; Dogecoin; Nvidia; U.S. technology and semiconductor stocks; S&P500 index; Cross-quantilogram and return predictability across quantiles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443124001756
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfin:v:99:y:2025:i:c:s1042443124001756

DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102109

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money is currently edited by I. Mathur and C. J. Neely

More articles in Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().