The keys to the white house: An index forecast for 2008

Allan J. Lichtman

International Journal of Forecasting, 2008, vol. 24, issue 2, 301-309

Abstract: The Keys to the White House are an index-based prediction system that retrospectively accounts for the popular-vote winners of every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980, and prospectively forecast the winners of every presidential election from 1984 through 2004 well ahead of time. The Keys give specificity to the theory that presidential election results turn primarily on the performance of the party controlling the White House. The Keys include no polling data and consider a much wider range of performance indicators than economic concerns. Already, the Keys are lining up for 2008, showing how changes in the structure of politics will produce a Democratic victory, in a dramatic reversal from 2004. The Keys also suggest that candidates need not follow the empty scripted campaigns of the recent past, but should instead be liberated to offer forthright discussions of the issues and ideas that will shape America's future.

Date: 2008
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:2:p:301-309

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