A real time evaluation of Bank of England forecasts of inflation and growth

Jan Groen, George Kapetanios and Simon Price

International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, vol. 25, issue 1, 74-80

Abstract: We compare the Bank of England's Inflation Report quarterly forecasts for growth and inflation to real-time benchmark forecasts. The results reveal the well-known difficulty of forecasting in a stable macroeconomic environment, and the Inflation Report forecasts of GDP growth are generally inferior to forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate models. However, for the inflation forecast the Inflation Report is clearly dominant.

Keywords: Real-time; data; Forecast; performance; Inflation; Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (58)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:25:y:2009:i:1:p:74-80

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